Predicting Student Learning Curve

• (Croteau, Heffernan, & Koedinger, 2004).
• The learning curve of a Knowledge Component graphs the durations of its learning events (or their probability of error).
• a learning curve should be a smoothly descending power-law or exponential curve
• For instance, the first Learning Event for a Knowledge Component may take 50 seconds, because the student is constructing the Knowledge Component by referring to the textbook and asking the tutoring system for help. The next Learning Event might take only 25 seconds because the student is reconstructing the Knowledge Component. On the third Learning Event, the student recalls the Knowledge Component after a brief struggle, so the event takes 12 seconds. The fourth event takes 6 seconds, the fifth takes 3 seconds, and so on. However, if the representation of knowledge is inaccurate, a Knowledge Component’s learning curve may have a huge jump in the middle or be quite jagged